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    • 19. 发明申请
    • SYSTEM FOR MULTIVARIATE CLIMATE CHANGE FORECASTING WITH UNCERTAINTY QUANTIFICATION
    • 用不确定数量预测多变量气候变化的系统
    • WO2015148887A1
    • 2015-10-01
    • PCT/US2015/022922
    • 2015-03-27
    • NORTHEASTERN UNIVERSITY
    • KODRA, EvanGANGULY, Auroop, R.
    • G06E1/00
    • G01W1/10G01W1/06Y02A90/13
    • A system and method for providing multivariate climate change forecasting are provided that obtain, from one or more climate model datasets, simulated historical and future climate model data, and from one or more climate observational datasets, historical observed climate data. A statistical distribution, using a Bayesian model, is provided of extremes or climate indices for one or more variable climate features using the simulated climate model data and the observed climate data. One or more metrics are determined, including a prediction of a future climate variable for a determined future time period, a confidence bound of the prediction of the future climate variable for the determined future time period, and a prediction bound for the future climate variable for the determined future time period. The metrics can be transmitted to a variety of applications in a variety of formats.
    • 提供了一种用于提供多变量气候变化预测的系统和方法,从一个或多个气候模型数据集获取模拟的历史和未来气候模型数据,以及从一个或多个气候观测数据集获取历史观测气候数据。 使用贝叶斯模型的统计分布,使用模拟气候模型数据和观测到的气候数据为一个或多个可变气候特征提供极端或气候指标。 确定一个或多个指标,包括对于确定的未来时间段的未来气候变量的预测,对于所确定的未来时间段的未来气候变量的预测的置信界限,以及针对未来气候变量的预测界限 确定的未来时间段。 这些指标可以以各种格式传输到各种应用程序。