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    • 7. 发明申请
    • DISRUPTION FORECASTING IN COMPLEX SCHEDULES
    • 复杂时间表中的破坏预测
    • US20160267390A1
    • 2016-09-15
    • US14657378
    • 2015-03-13
    • International Business Machines Corporation
    • Randall L. CogillJakub MarecekMartin MevissenPaulito PalmesRobert ShortenFabian R. Wirth
    • G06N7/00G06N99/00G06Q10/06
    • G06N7/005G06N20/00G06Q10/06311G06Q10/0635
    • A method for forecasting time delays added to a scheduled start time and a scheduled end time of a task includes generating a stochastic model of the task and resources affecting the task, the stochastic model includes a reactionary delay component that is a function of previous task end times and a root cause delay component that is an independent random process at a specific time. The method further includes: calculating a probability distribution of time delays added to the scheduled start time as a combination of the reactionary delay component and the root cause delay component using the stochastic model to provide a probability distribution of start times; and calculating a probability distribution of time delays added to the scheduled end time as a combination of the reactionary delay component and the root cause delay component using the stochastic model to provide a probability distribution of end times.
    • 用于预测添加到任务的预定开始时间和预定结束时间的时间延迟的方法包括生成任务的随机模型和影响任务的资源,随机模型包括作为先前任务结束的函数的反动延迟分量 时间和根本原因延迟分量,这是特定时间的独立随机过程。 该方法还包括:使用随机模型来计算添加到调度的开始时间的时间延迟的概率分布,作为反动延迟分量和根本原因延迟分量的组合,以提供开始时间的概率分布; 以及使用所述随机模型计算添加到所述预定结束时间的时间延迟的概率分布作为所述反动延迟分量和所述根本原因延迟分量的组合,以提供结束时间的概率分布。