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    • 1. 发明申请
    • Method and System for Adaptive Project Risk Management
    • 自适应项目风险管理方法与系统
    • US20080255910A1
    • 2008-10-16
    • US11735699
    • 2007-04-16
    • Sugato BagchiStephen BuckleyLea A. DelerisShubir KapoorKaan KatirciogluRichard B. Lam
    • Sugato BagchiStephen BuckleyLea A. DelerisShubir KapoorKaan KatirciogluRichard B. Lam
    • G06F9/46
    • G06Q10/06G06Q10/0635
    • A computer implemented method for improving project risk management based on (a) a quantitative analysis of risks affecting activities, i.e., the root factors leading to cost and time overruns on an activity by activity basis, and (b) an optimization of the resources allocation to each activity in the project plan, is employed to maximize the probability of completing projects on time and within-budget. The method can be employed prior to proceeding with one or more projects, but is also advantageous in that it is adaptive in the sense that more information can be learned during the course of a project about the risk factors present in the project, and this information is used to enable dynamically re-allocating resources to ensure a better outcome given an updated risk profile. Preferably, a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) is used to capture how risk factors identified by project managers influence individual activity durations.
    • 一种用于改进项目风险管理的计算机实施方法,其基于(a)对影响活动的风险的定量分析,即导致成本和活动的活动的时间超支的根本因素,以及(b)优化资源分配 对于项目计划中的每项活动,都被用来最大限度地提高按时完成项目的预算。 该方法可以在进行一个或多个项目之前被使用,但也是有利的,因为在项目过程中可以在项目过程中学习更多的信息来描述项目中存在的风险因素,并且该信息是适应性的 用于实现动态重新分配资源,以确保更新的风险概况更好的结果。 优选地,贝叶斯信仰网络(BBN)用于捕获由项目经理确定的风险因素如何影响个人活动持续时间。