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    • 2. 发明专利
    • Device and method for predicting power demand
    • 用于预测功率需求的装置和方法
    • JP2009225613A
    • 2009-10-01
    • JP2008069492
    • 2008-03-18
    • Tokyo Electric Power Co Inc:The東京電力株式会社
    • KURUMADA HIROKATAKODA JUNHAIDA TAKESHI
    • H02J3/00G06Q10/04G06Q50/00G06Q50/06
    • PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To provide a power demand predicting device for precisely predicting power demand at a prediction target time. SOLUTION: The power demand predicting device 1 for predicting the power demand at the prediction target time includes: an input part 10 which receives the predicted temperature data at the prediction target time; a memory part 20 which stores the past data going back from the prediction target time; and a prediction part 30 which predicts the power demand at the prediction target time by using at least first average temperature data during a first accumulated time going back from the prediction target time, and a second average temperature data during a second accumulated time longer than the first accumulated time times going back from the prediction target time, out of the predicted temperature data input into the input part 10 and the temperature data stored in the memory part 20. COPYRIGHT: (C)2010,JPO&INPIT
    • 要解决的问题:提供一种用于在预测目标时间精确地预测功率需求的功率需求预测装置。 解决方案:用于在预测目标时间预测功率需求的功率需求预测装置1包括:输入部10,其在预测目标时间接收预测温度数据; 存储从预测目标时间返回的过去数据的存储部20; 以及预测部30,其通过在从预测目标时间开始的第一累积时间期间使用至少第一平均温度数据来预测预测目标时间的功率需求,以及在比第二平均温度数据长的第二累积时间期间预测第二平均温度数据 从输入到输入部分10的预测温度数据和存储在存储器部分20中的温度数据中的从预测目标时间返回的第一累积时间时间。(C)2010,JPO&INPIT
    • 4. 发明专利
    • Method and system for cash flow estimation
    • 现场流量估计方法与系统
    • JP2006313394A
    • 2006-11-16
    • JP2005134700
    • 2005-05-06
    • Tokyo Electric Power Co Inc:The東京電力株式会社
    • KOMURO ATSUSHIHAIDA TAKESHISHIOZAWA MORIHIRO
    • G06Q10/00G06Q10/06G06Q50/00
    • PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To provide a new technique which can suitably estimate a cash flow of an enterprise. SOLUTION: A first relational expression of a sales amount and business expenses and a second relational expression of a sales amount and depreciation expenses are identified from the data for past sales amounts, past sales expenses, and past depreciation expenses. Operating capital and a third relational expression between the operating capital and sales amount are calculated from sales claims among liquid assets, sales debts among liquid liabilities, and the data for the past sales amounts. Data for future estimated sales amounts is also acquired. Future estimated sales expenses, future estimated depreciation expenses, and future operating capital estimating amounts are calculated from the data for the future estimated sales amounts according to the first to third relational expressions. An amount of estimated operating capital rise or fall are also calculated from the data for the future operating capital estimating amounts. Then, a future estimated cash flow based on sales activities is calculated from the data for the future estimated sales amounts, the future estimated sales expenses, the future estimated depreciation expenses, and the amount of estimated operating capital rise or fall and a preregistered effective tax rate. COPYRIGHT: (C)2007,JPO&INPIT
    • 要解决的问题:提供可以适当估计企业现金流量的新技术。 解决方案:根据过去销售金额,过去销售费用和过去折旧费用的数据,确定销售金额和业务费用的第一关系表达式以及销售金额和折旧费用的第二关系表达式。 经营资金和营业资金与销售金额之间的第三个关系表达式由流动资产的销售额,流动负债中的销售债务以及过去销售金额的数据计算。 未来估计销售金额的数据也将被收购。 未来估计销售费用,未来估计折旧费用和未来经营资产估算金额根据第一至第三关系表达式从未来估计销售金额的数据中计算。 预计营运资金上升或下降的金额也由未来营业资金估算金额的数据计算。 然后,根据销售活动的未来估计现金流量,从未来估计销售金额,未来估计销售费用,未来估计折旧费用,预计营业资金上升或下降额以及预先注册的有效税额的数据计算 率。 版权所有(C)2007,JPO&INPIT
    • 6. 发明专利
    • Demand predicting device and method and program
    • 需求预测设备及方法与程序
    • JP2007047996A
    • 2007-02-22
    • JP2005231095
    • 2005-08-09
    • Tokyo Electric Power Co Inc:The東京電力株式会社
    • HAIDA TAKESHIYAMADA FUTOSHIKUBO ATSUSHI
    • G06Q10/00G06Q10/04G06Q50/00G06Q50/10H02J3/00
    • Y02A30/12
    • PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To highly precisely predict demand due to the change of weather without increasing costs or time by reviewing a demand prediction value by the successive correction of weather forecast information as necessary even when weather sharply has changed contrary to the weather forecast. SOLUTION: This demand prediction device is configured so that weather forecast information at a predetermined time is inputted by a first input part 10, and demand prediction at each time is performed by a demand predicting part 11 based on the weather forecast information input by the first input part 10, and the actual demand result until an arbitrary time after the lapse of a predetermined time and the actual weather information until the arbitrary time are inputted by a second input part 12, and the weather prediction information input by the first input part 10 is compared with the actual weather information input by the second input part 12, to generate the weather prediction information after an arbitrary time from the comparison result by a weather prediction information generating part 13, and the demand prediction predicted by the demand predicting part 11 is corrected by a correcting part 14 based on at least one actual demand result until the arbitrary time input by the second input part 12 and the weather prediction information after the arbitrary time generated by the weather prediction information generating part 13. COPYRIGHT: (C)2007,JPO&INPIT
    • 要解决的问题:为了高度精确地预测由于天气变化而不增加成本或时间的需求,即使当天气急剧变化而与天气相反时,通过连续校正天气预报信息来检查需求预测值 预测。 解决方案:该需求预测装置被配置为使得由第一输入部分10输入预定时间的天气预报信息,并且由需求预测部分11根据天气预报信息输入执行每次的需求预测 通过第一输入部10和直到经过预定时间后的任意时间的实际需求结果以及直到由第二输入部12输入任意时间的实际天气信息,并且由第一输入部10输入的天气预报信息 将输入部10与由第二输入部12输入的实际天气信息进行比较,从天气预测信息生成部13的比较结果开始的任意时刻之后生成天气预测信息,通过需求预测预测的需求预测 基于至少一个实际需求结果,通过校正部分14校正部分11,直到输入的任意时间为止 第二输入部分12和由天气预报信息产生部分13产生的任意时间之后的天气预报信息。(C)2007年,JPO和INPIT
    • 7. 发明专利
    • Risk analysis method and program
    • 风险分析方法与程序
    • JP2005339294A
    • 2005-12-08
    • JP2004158518
    • 2004-05-28
    • Tokyo Electric Power Co Inc:The東京電力株式会社
    • HAIDA TAKESHISHIBATANI TETSUJISAKAMOTO SHUICHI
    • G06Q10/00G06Q50/00G06Q50/06G06Q50/10G06F17/60
    • PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To perform risk analysis for divergence between a value of sales price determination index and a value of purchase price determination index. SOLUTION: This method comprises steps of acquiring quantity plan data for a purchase price determination index A and a sales price determination index B for every unit period; specifying a first risk hedge index of the index A and a second risk hedge index of the index B; calculating parameters for calculating future values of the index A and index B by use of value history data for the index A and the index B; estimating future values of the index A and the index B for each unit period by use of the parameters; and accumulating a unit period balance obtained by adding the product of the difference in future value between the first risk hedge index and the second risk hedge index and a specified risk hedge quantity to the difference between the total sum for the index B of the product of future value and quantity and the total sum for the index A of the product of future value and quantity, according to the future values and quantity plan data for the index A and the index B, over the total unit period related to the quantity plan data. COPYRIGHT: (C)2006,JPO&NCIPI
    • 要解决的问题:对销售价格确定指标的价值与购买价格确定指数的价值之间的差异进行风险分析。 解决方案:该方法包括以下步骤:为每个单位周期获取购买价格确定指数A和销售价格确定指数B的数量计划数据; 指定指数A的第一风险对冲指数和指数B的第二风险对冲指数; 通过使用索引A和索引B的值历史数据计算用于计算索引A和索引B的未来值的参数; 通过参数估算每个单位周期的指数A和指数B的未来值; 并且通过将第一风险对冲指数和第二风险对冲指数之间的未来价值的差异与指定的风险套期保值量相加,得到的单位期间余额与产品的指数B的总和之间的差额 未来价值和数量以及未来价值和数量产品指数A的总和,根据指数A和指数B的未来价值和数量计划数据,与数量计划数据相关的总单位期间 。 版权所有(C)2006,JPO&NCIPI
    • 8. 发明专利
    • Method of computing demanded electric power and apparatus thereof
    • 计算电力的方法和装置
    • JP2005224023A
    • 2005-08-18
    • JP2004029916
    • 2004-02-05
    • Tokyo Electric Power Co Inc:The東京電力株式会社
    • HAIDA TAKESHIOGURI AKIYOSHISATO KAZUHISA
    • G06Q50/06G06Q50/00H02J3/00G06F17/60
    • PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To compute an amount of deviation between the power demanded and the power supplied, without installing an interval meter or the like at a customer, when the customer is connected and supplied with power, and monitor the amount of deviation between the power demanded and the power supplied in power management, based on the computed amount of deviation between the power demanded and the power supplied. SOLUTION: Amount of deviation between the demanded power and the supplied power computating system comprises a supplied power computating portion 21 that computes power supplied per unit time, with respect to the power supplied from PPS to a power utility company; a demanded power computating portion 31 that computes the power demanded per unit time of a customer having contract with PPS; a demanded power and supplied power computating portion 32 that computes the amount of deviation between the demanded and supplied power, based on the difference between the power supplied per unit time and the total power demanded per unit time; and a billing portion 33 that makes a charge for excess electricity bill, based on the amount of deviation between the power demanded and the power supplied. The demanded power computating portion 31 uses a standard load curve that represents the estimated value of power per day, based on the power consumed by each customer per unit time and computes the power demanded per month for each customer. In addition, it monitors the amounts of deviation between the power demanded and the power supplied in power management based on the computed amounts of deviation between the power demanded and the power supplied. COPYRIGHT: (C)2005,JPO&NCIPI
    • 要解决的问题:为了计算所需电力和供电功率之间的偏差量,在客户连接并提供电力的情况下,不需要在客户端安装间隔计等,并且监视 基于所计算的功率和供电功率之间的偏差计算出的功率需求与功率管理中提供的功率之间的偏差。 解决方案:所需功率与供电功率计算系统之间的偏差量包括供电电力计算部分21,用于计算从PPS向电力公司提供的电力的每单位时间供电的供电功率计算部分21; 要求功率计算部分31,其计算与PPS签约的客户的每单位时间所需的功率; 基于每单位时间提供的功率与每单位时间所需的总功率之间的差异来计算所需功率和供电功率之间的偏差量的需求功率和供电功率计算部分32; 以及基于所需功率和所供电功率之间的偏差量来计费过量电费的计费部分33。 所需功率计算部31基于每个用户每单位时间消耗的功率,使用表示每天功率的估计值的标准负载曲线,并计算每个用户每月所需的功率。 另外,它还根据所计算出的功率和所供电功率之间的偏差量来监视所需功率和功率管理中提供的功率之间的偏差量。 版权所有(C)2005,JPO&NCIPI
    • 9. 发明专利
    • Fuel forward curve estimation method and system using estimated fuel forward curve
    • 燃料预测曲线估计方法和使用估计燃料前向曲线的系统
    • JP2005135347A
    • 2005-05-26
    • JP2003373689
    • 2003-10-31
    • Tokyo Electric Power Co Inc:The東京電力株式会社
    • HAIDA TAKESHISHIBATANI TETSUJIKOIZUMI TOSHIAKISAKAMOTO SHUICHI
    • G06Q40/00G06Q40/04G06F17/60
    • PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To estimate an exact fuel forward curve used in calculating a fixed price for fuel. SOLUTION: A fuel forward curve estimation method comprises: acquiring a futures price for reference fuel on the basis of a each contract month (S2); acquiring a fluctuation in the futures price for the present reference fuel against the futures price in the most recent contract month for the reference price (S3); and modeling the futures price on the basis of each contract month for the reference fuel by using the acquired fluctuation in futures price for the reference fuel (S4); time lag-correcting the futures price on the basis of each contract month for modeled reference fuel (S5); estimating the time series model of a spread indicative of a difference in prices between fuel of interest on the basis of each futures contract month and the futures in the most recent month of the reference fuel based on the futures price on the basis of each contract month for the corrected reference fuel (S6); and estimating the forward curve of the fuel of interest from the estimated time series model (S7). COPYRIGHT: (C)2005,JPO&NCIPI
    • 要解决的问题:估算用于计算燃料固定价格的精确燃料正向曲线。 解决方案:燃料正向曲线估计方法包括:基于每个合约月份(S2)获取参考燃料的期货价格; 以最近一个合约月份的参考价格(S3)获得本参考燃料的期货价格波动与期货价格的波动; 通过使用所获得的参考燃料期货价格波动,在每个合约月份对参考燃料建模期货价格(S4); 根据每个合约月份对模型参考燃料进行期货价格时间滞后(S5); 根据每个合约月份,根据每个期货合约月份和最近一个月参考燃料的期货价格,估计指示利息燃料之间价格差异的价差的时间序列模型 对于校正参考燃料(S6); 并根据估计的时间序列模型来估计目标燃料的前向曲线(S7)。 版权所有(C)2005,JPO&NCIPI
    • 10. 发明专利
    • Information processing method and computer system for power generation planning
    • 用于发电规划的信息处理方法和计算机系统
    • JP2005056103A
    • 2005-03-03
    • JP2003285666
    • 2003-08-04
    • Tokyo Electric Power Co Inc:The東京電力株式会社
    • YABE KUNIAKIHAIDA TAKESHI
    • G06F19/00G06Q10/04G06Q50/00G06Q50/06H02J3/00G06F17/60
    • Y02A30/12
    • PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To attain the simulation of a power generation planning which is closer to reality. SOLUTION: Weather condition data in specific time specified with unit time intervals in a future specific year are generated under the consideration of the continuity of the unit time intervals, and business activity condition data in the future specific year are generated, and data regarding a prediction expression to calculate power demand are acquired from at least the weather conditions and the business activity conditions in accordance with the specific time specified with the unit time intervals in the future specific year, and power demand data in the specific time in the future specific year are generated by using the acquired data regarding the prediction expression. The weather condition data are generated not based on probability distribution simply acquired from the past results, but under the consideration of the continuity of the unit time intervals. Consequently, more actual data can be generated and more actual power demand is therefore predicted. COPYRIGHT: (C)2005,JPO&NCIPI
    • 要解决的问题:实现更接近现实的发电规划的模拟。

      解决方案:考虑到单位时间间隔的连续性,生成未来具体年份单位时间间隔指定的特定时间的天气条件数据,生成未来特定年份的业务活动条件数据,数据 关于计算功率需求的预测表达式,根据未来特定年份中的单位时间间隔指定的具体时间,以及将来的特定时间内的电力需求数据,从至少天气条件和营业活动条件获取 通过使用关于预测表达式的获取的数据来生成特定年份。 气象条件数据不是基于从过去的结果简单地获得的概率分布,而是考虑单位时间间隔的连续性。 因此,可以产生更多的实际数据,从而预测更多的实际功率需求。 版权所有(C)2005,JPO&NCIPI