The invention belongs to the technical field of capacity planning for electric taxi charging stations, and relates to a capacity planning method of the electric taxi charging stations through charging demand forecasting by modeling an operation process, in which the destinations of the electric taxis are selected based on hierarchical probability. An efficient operation region of the electric taxis is divided into multiple basic cell units with the same sizes; the similar cell units are combined into a large region; the cell units and the corresponding large region are endowed with attraction degree of pollution mobility so as to determine the destinations of the electric taxis based on hierarchical probability; and the requirement can be satisfied, and the planning capacity of the charging stations is determined according to the charging demand on each charging station by the electric taxis in the operation process based on probability. By adoption of the method, the selection efficiency for the destinations of the electric taxis can be improved; the way of hierarchical selection based on the regional characteristics can be in accord with the decision-making habits of users in a better manner, so that the problems of over-fine fine granularity, high operational complexity, and low effectiveness of the calculation effect are avoided; and convenience and rapidness in the actual operation are improved.