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1. 发明申请

US20060212339A1 Method of producing a consensus forecast 审中-公开
标题翻译：产生共识预测的方法
公开(公告)号：US20060212339A1
公开(公告)日：2006-09-21
申请号：US11083342
申请日：2005-03-17
申请人： Philip Hubbard , Che-Wing Pang , Philip Barnes
发明人： Philip Hubbard , Che-Wing Pang , Philip Barnes
IPC分类号： G07G1/00
CPC分类号： G06Q10/04 , G06Q40/00
摘要： Methods are provided for producing a consensus forecast. An adjusted consensus forecast for a plurality of economic indicators is produced by compensating for forecasters who miss a monthly forecast and by adjusting for unchanged forecasts from the prior monthly survey and by compensating for a lack of dynamism in the forecast values. Where a forecaster misses a forecast, the missing forecast is replaced by the last submitted forecast, for up to three periods following the last submitted forecasts. Unchanged forecasts, whether naturally unchanged or generated by replacement forecasts, are adjusted by taking into account the rate of change of the consensus from the previous monthly survey.
摘要翻译：提供方法用于产生一致的预测。对多个经济指标的调整后的共识预测是通过补偿错失每月预测的预测者，并通过调整前一次月度调查的不变预测，并补偿预测值缺乏活力。如果预报员错过预测，则上次提交的预测将在最后一次提交的预测中替换缺失的预测，最多可以在三个时间段之后。通过考虑到以前每月调查的协商一致的变化率，调整不变的预测，无论是自然不变还是由替换预测产生。

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