![一种馈线基线负荷预测方法](/CN/2015/1/145/images/201510725100.jpg)
基本信息:
- 专利标题: 一种馈线基线负荷预测方法
- 专利标题(英):Feeder baseline load prediction method
- 申请号:CN201510725100.5 申请日:2015-10-29
- 公开(公告)号:CN106650979A 公开(公告)日:2017-05-10
- 发明人: 严春华 , 曹阳 , 张鸿 , 单茂华 , 田伟 , 鄢蜜昉 , 高志远 , 曾丹 , 刘俊
- 申请人: 中国电力科学研究院 , 国家电网公司 , 江苏省电力公司 , 江苏省电力公司南京供电公司 , 国网辽宁省电力有限公司
- 申请人地址: 北京市海淀区清河小营东路15号; ; ; ;
- 专利权人: 中国电力科学研究院,国家电网公司,江苏省电力公司,江苏省电力公司南京供电公司,国网辽宁省电力有限公司
- 当前专利权人: 中国电力科学研究院,国家电网公司,江苏省电力公司,江苏省电力公司南京供电公司,国网辽宁省电力有限公司
- 当前专利权人地址: 北京市海淀区清河小营东路15号; ; ; ;
- 代理机构: 北京安博达知识产权代理有限公司
- 代理人: 徐国文
- 主分类号: G06Q10/04
- IPC分类号: G06Q10/04 ; G06Q50/06
The invention provides a feeder baseline load prediction method. The method comprises the steps that historical meteorological data, the historical load data of all the users on a feeder and the meteorological data of a prediction period are imported; the historical load data of the previous year are corrected; the historical days of similar meteorology are selected; baseline load prediction of all the users on the feeder is performed by using an RBF radial basis artificial neural network method; the baseline load prediction values of all the user of the feeder are adjusted by using an adjustment factor; and summation of the baseline load prediction results of all the users of the feeder is performed. The influence of the meteorological factors on the load is considered in selection of the historical days of similar load, and the holidays and festivals, the demand response event days, the reservation cutting days and the days of which the load is lower than the threshold are eliminated so as to ensure the rationality of selection of the similar historical days. According to the feeder baseline load calculation method, the radial basis artificial neural network is selected, and the radial basis artificial neural network has the advantages of fast convergence rate and can easily search the global minimum in comparison with a BP neural network commonly used in electric power system load prediction.