![一种基于天气过程划分的风电功率预测方法](/CN/2015/1/67/images/201510337482.jpg)
基本信息:
- 专利标题: 一种基于天气过程划分的风电功率预测方法
- 专利标题(英):Wind power forecasting method dividing based on weather process
- 申请号:CN201510337482.4 申请日:2015-06-17
- 公开(公告)号:CN104933483A 公开(公告)日:2015-09-23
- 发明人: 王勃 , 冯双磊 , 张慧玲 , 韩红卫 , 卢静 , 张菲 , 车建峰 , 靳双龙 , 胡菊 , 王铮 , 赵艳青 , 杨红英 , 姜文玲 , 宋宗鹏 , 邵鹏
- 申请人: 中国电力科学研究院 , 国家电网公司 , 国网宁夏电力公司
- 申请人地址: 北京市海淀区清河小营东路15号
- 专利权人: 中国电力科学研究院,国家电网公司,国网宁夏电力公司
- 当前专利权人: 中国电力科学研究院,国家电网公司,国网宁夏电力公司
- 当前专利权人地址: 北京市海淀区清河小营东路15号
- 代理机构: 北京安博达知识产权代理有限公司
- 代理人: 徐国文
- 主分类号: G06Q10/04
- IPC分类号: G06Q10/04 ; G06Q50/06
The invention provides a wind power forecasting method dividing based on weather process. The wind power forecasting method comprises the following steps of: determining a numerical weather prediction matrix M and a numerical weather prediction standard matrix X; analyzing principle components of the numerical weather prediction standard matrix X; clustering a matrix Y composed of the first m-th principle components in the numerical weather prediction standard matrix X which is subjected to the principle component analysis; and establishing a wind power forecasting model, and forecasting wind power. According to the wind power forecasting method dividing based on weather process, based on the wind speed, wind direction and diurnal variation of pressure in NWP data, a sample is subjected to dimension reduction process by the principle component analysis, weather processes are classified by a clustering analysis method, weather types are divided into a high pressure stable type, a low pressure unstable type and the like according to the size and stability of control air pressure and the variation characteristics of wind speed and wind direction, and a forecasting model is established by adopting a BP neural network with respect to each weather process, and thereby the forecasting accuracy is effectively improved.