![一种光伏发电出力联合概率分布建模的方法](/CN/2015/1/75/images/201510378794.jpg)
基本信息:
- 专利标题: 一种光伏发电出力联合概率分布建模的方法
- 申请号:CN201510378794.X 申请日:2015-06-30
- 公开(公告)号:CN104933315B 公开(公告)日:2018-05-08
- 发明人: 施涛 , 朱凌志 , 王湘艳 , 于若英 , 陈宁 , 曲立楠 , 葛路明 , 赵亮
- 申请人: 中国电力科学研究院 , 国家电网公司
- 申请人地址: 北京市海淀区清河小营东路15号
- 专利权人: 中国电力科学研究院,国家电网公司
- 当前专利权人: 中国电力科学研究院,国家电网公司
- 当前专利权人地址: 北京市海淀区清河小营东路15号
- 代理机构: 北京安博达知识产权代理有限公司
- 代理人: 徐国文
- 主分类号: G06F19/00
- IPC分类号: G06F19/00
The invention provides a photovoltaic power generation output joint probability distributed modeling method. The method comprises the following steps: initializing the output sample data of each photovoltaic power station; obeying Beta distribution according to the sunlight irradiance in a space where the photovoltaic power stations are positioned within a certain time interval to obtain an output probability model and a Beta distribution parameter of each photovoltaic power station; calculating a probability distribution sample space vector corresponding to each sampling point of each photovoltaic power station according to the output probability model and the Beta distribution parameter of each photovoltaic power station; selecting a multivariate standard normal distribution function for serving as a connection function of the joint probability distribution feature of each photovoltaic power station; performing parameter identification on the relevant coefficient of the multi-component standard normal distribution function based on the probability distribution sample space vectors; and substituting the output probability models of the photovoltaic power stations into the multi-component standard normal distribution function to obtain joint probability distribution models of the photovoltaic power station. Through adoption of the method, the difference among the output of each photovoltaic power station on the aspect of probability distribution can be reflected, and mutual relevance can be considered.
公开/授权文献:
- CN104933315A 一种光伏发电出力联合概率分布建模的方法 公开/授权日:2015-09-23