The invention discloses a steel railroad rail breakage fault analyzing and warning method and a steel railroad rail breakage fault analyzing and warning system. The steel railroad rail breakage fault analyzing and warning method includes the steps of dividing a railroad line into a plurality of unit grids according to a length scaler, defining parts and events of each unit grid, and describing full-life-circle status data of a steel rail on the basis of the parts and the events; collecting and integrating the full-life-circle status data of the steel rails in each unit grid; establishing a steel rail status degradation Markov random process model for each unit grid according to the full-life-circle status data of the steel rail of each unit grid; calculating steel rail breakage probability of each unit grid in the next steel status detecting period on the basis of Markov random process model for each unit grid, assigning different threshold values to the steel rail, and warning a steel breakage fault. The steel railroad rail breakage fault analyzing and warning method and the steel railroad rail breakage fault analyzing and warning system have the advantages that by the aid of the technical scheme, calculation scale for steel rail breakage fault analyzing and warning is reduced, calculating precision is improved, and specific position and time of the steel rail breakage fault can be analyzed and warned.