基本信息:
- 专利标题： 钢铁用电量的预测方法及装置
- 专利标题（英）：Iron steel electricity consumption forecasting method and device
- 申请号：CN201410815393.1 申请日：2014-12-23
- 公开(公告)号：CN104573854A 公开(公告)日：2015-04-29
- 发明人： 秦砺寒 , 牛东晓 , 李顺昕 , 王智敏 , 单体华 , 岳云力 , 史智萍 , 霍菲阳 , 黄毅臣 , 聂文海 , 马天男 , 韩江磊 , 胥永兰 , 李博 , 李笑蓉 , 陈丹 , 杨敏 , 张海霞 , 赵国梁 , 李莉 , 杨金刚 , 赵炜炜 , 许晓敏 , 刘丽 , 朱正甲 , 范荻 , 吕昕 , 梁大鹏 , 覃泓皓 , 汪鹏 , 牛辰昊
- 申请人： 国家电网公司 , 国网冀北电力有限公司经济技术研究院
- 申请人地址： 北京市西城区西长安街86号
- 专利权人： 国家电网公司,国网冀北电力有限公司经济技术研究院
- 当前专利权人： 国家电网公司,国网冀北电力有限公司经济技术研究院
- 当前专利权人地址： 北京市西城区西长安街86号
- 代理机构： 北京三友知识产权代理有限公司
- 代理人： 王涛
- 主分类号： G06Q10/04
- IPC分类号： G06Q10/04 ; G06Q50/06
The invention discloses an iron steel electricity consumption forecasting method and device. The forecasting method comprises the following steps: acquiring iron steel historical data of an area to be forecasted within a preset period of time to serve as sample data, wherein the iron steel historical data comprises electricity consumption index and iron steel electricity consumption; performing dimensionless treatment on the sample data to obtain normalized electricity consumption index and normalized iron steel electricity consumption; adopting the normalized electricity consumption index as an input variable, and the normalized iron steel electricity consumption as an output variable to realize network training so as to build a nerve network model; adopting the normalized electricity consumption index as the input variable and the normalized iron steel electricity consumption as the output variable to build a support vector regression model; combining the nerve network model and the support vector regression model to obtain a combined model, and using the combined model to forecast the iron steel electricity consumption. According to the invention, the demand on the forecasting precision of the iron steel electricity consumption is satisfied to the utmost extent, and reference is provided for economical and reasonable planning of a power grid.